Is broadcast radio dying?

[Chuck(G)]

Maybe for FM. But, I suspect that AM will be around a long time, mostly with the "news-talk" format.

Back in the early 70's, I had my first exposure to cable TV (not CATV, but real cable with HBO). It was cheap (less than $9/month), commercial-free and very limited (A and B sides, no set-top box). It was hard to see that it was going to catch on.

I think that net radio will follow the same path--commercial content, wide deployment primarily because traditional broadcasting has left such a desert in terms of content, and the "listen to what you want when you want it". It's that last item that will be hard to beat--it goes counter to the whole premise of broadcasting, that people will be where you want them to be to hear your message. We're already seeing this happening in television with things like Tivo.

In short, net radio offers a way to "personalize" listening--and that's a pretty powerful force.

[Leland]

I think that net radio will follow the same path--commercial content, wide deployment primarily because traditional broadcasting has left such a desert in terms of content, and the "listen to what you want when you want it". It's that last item that will be hard to beat--it goes counter to the whole premise of broadcasting, that people will be where you want them to be to hear your message. We're already seeing this happening in television with things like Tivo.

Funny timing -- iTunes just got updated today, gaining native Podcast support. Podcasts aren't exactly new, but using them needed a few steps & additional software, and required getting out there to find them on your own.

(if y'all haven't heard about it yet, Podcasts are basically audio magazines, condensed into low-bitrate mp3's and often available for subscriptions from all over the internet)

It's not streaming radio, but it's the closest thing to having regularly updated broadcasts (hence "pod"casts) carried in portable music players.

I don't think that regular broadcast radio would die. It'll surely change, just as AM has changed into almost exclusively talk radio while FM's greater fidelity proved better for music.

I really don't want XM or Sirius -- I prefer to find local content when I'm on the road.

[ThomasDodd]

It'll happen--there's just too much money at stake for it not to. Is DSL really much more expensive than POTS for the telcos to provide?

Yes, DSL is much more expensive. The limits on distance are a big one. POTS can be easily amplified, or digitized and multiplexed for the long trip back. I cannot even get high modem speeds. Current max is in the 30k range, but normaly just over 28k. 56k (not even) hasn't got a snowball's chance, The problem switch is 200 yards before my place. My current options are ISDN (way to pricy still, and for only 64/128K) or Satelite (can you say lag?).

Cable might be an option, but I don't want those idiots near my house. Back when I lived in town (pre digital), constant outages made it nearly unusable. And to get internet access requires TV programming. I already hav a great Sat. system with better pricing.

[Joe Baker]

• "Television will be the end of radio."
  "Television will be the end of movies."
  "FM will be the end of AM radio."
  "Cable television will be the end of broadcast television."

These were all the common wisdom of the day. In light of that history,

• "Satellite Radio will be the end of broadcast radio."

seems not just unlikely, but implausible.

Count the number of radios your household owns today. Without really trying, I come up with 13. Most of them are used at least once a month; several are used daily (especially in the four cars we own, with another car coming in a month or so). I'm not ABOUT to spend what it would cost to replace all those with satellite radio (actually, I won't replace ANY of them with satellite**). I'll use internet radio when it's convenient, and CDs when internet's not available before I'd EVER pay for satellite radio. And I suspect that I'm not that unusual.
__________________________________
Joe Baker, who thinks that local-origination radio contributes to the sense of community, while national programming detracts from it.

** until/unless there is "free satellite radio" -- which I think there will be, as I suspect satellite bandwidth is probably cheaper than broadcast tower/transmitter maintenance in the long run).

[Rick Denney]

I've been listening to satellite radio, for the simple reason that in this hilly area I can't find many terrestrial radio stations that will cover the whole trip from home to the office. And I travel up to Pennsylvania for project work nearly every week, and hunting for a local station that provides something interesting to listen to is quite a challenge.

But I don't think netcasting will lead the way until there's a cheap way to get broadband access into the car. That's where I do 99.9% of my radio listening.

Rick "who thinks the death of broadcast radio has been predicted before" Denney

[MartyNeilan]

• "Television will be the end of radio."
  "Television will be the end of movies."
  "FM will be the end of AM radio."
  "Cable television will be the end of broadcast television."

You forgot a classic one, Joe: "Video Killed The Radio Star"

[Chuck(G)]

• "Television will be the end of radio."
  "Television will be the end of movies."
  "FM will be the end of AM radio."
  "Cable television will be the end of broadcast television."

These were all the common wisdom of the day. In light of that history,

• "Satellite Radio will be the end of broadcast radio."

seems not just unlikely, but implausible.

Yes, Joe. But what killed Vaudeville?

[Doug@GT]

I've been listening to satellite radio, for the simple reason that in this hilly area I can't find many terrestrial radio stations that will cover the whole trip from home to the office.

If I were in that situation, I would probably invest in an iPod, or use my pda hooked up with a cassette adapter. It's got to be cheaper in the long run.

Doug "who is honestly not savvy to how much satellite radio costs"

[Rick Denney]

If I were in that situation, I would probably invest in an iPod, or use my pda hooked up with a cassette adapter. It's got to be cheaper in the long run.

Doug "who is honestly not savvy to how much satellite radio costs"

I don't know how an iPod would solve my problem. Don't they just store music? I usually listen to news and talk shows and less often to music in the car. And when I listen to music, my car has a very nice CD changer that works fine.

A cassette adaptor is of no use to me--the stereo in my car has no cassette player.

I use an XM Roadie with an FM transmitter. The hardware cost was about $100, and the monthly subscription is about $13. As much as I have been driving lately, it's worth it. But I don't like the rat's nest of wires that comes with it--power, audio, and antenna. And a line of trees will interrupt the signal, though, strangely, I was able to get good reception on a lower floor of a parking garage at Dulles airport with no line of sight to the bird.

Rick "who wouldn't need it just for driving around the DC area, which has a good selection of talk radio" Denney

[TMurphy]

I don't know how an iPod would solve my problem. Don't they just store music? I usually listen to news and talk shows and less often to music in the car.

That's what this latest post of Leland's was talking about...iTunes now supporting podcasts. Download 'em, put 'em on the pod, listen while you drive. Granted, it isn't as instant as the radio, but, it's commercial free talk/news radio if you want it.

Tim Murphy, noting that the FM transmitter used for sattelite radio would also work for an iPod...

[Joe Baker]

• "Television will be the end of radio."
  "Television will be the end of movies."
  "FM will be the end of AM radio."
  "Cable television will be the end of broadcast television."

These were all the common wisdom of the day. In light of that history,

• "Satellite Radio will be the end of broadcast radio."

seems not just unlikely, but implausible.

Yes, Joe. But what killed Vaudeville?

You know, Chuck, I was thinking about this last night after I posted my message. There HAVE been some forms of entertainment that were done in by other forms:

• Live music was made mostly obsolete by recorded music.
  Vaudeville was made obsolete by movies.
  Theater was made mostly obsolete by movies.
  8-track was made mostly obsolete by cassette.
  Cassettes and LPs were BOTH made mostly obsolete by CD.
  VHS was made obsolete by DVD.

So how DO you predict the displacement of one form of entertainment delivery by another? I found at least three commonalities:

• 1. The replacement must come at a competitive or lower cost to the consumer.
  2. The quality of the replacement** must be perceived by the consumer to be the same or better.
  3. The replacement must be equally or more broadly available.

Satellite radio passes on #3, arguably passes on #2 (see my earlier comments on the value of local origination programming), and fails on #1. I believe it will have to become free to the consumer (or closer than it is now), and carry a sufficient number of free or CHEAP channels, including local channels, before it will supplant AM/FM radio.

BUT WAIT -- I saw in the Consumer Reports last night that the government is planning to allow TV broadcasters to discontinue analog broadcasts soon, meaning you'll have to get cable, satellite or a decoder box. That violates rule #1 above. So at least by government fiat, there can be an exception to the rules.
____________________________
Joe Baker, who would rather "Rise & Shine" with Freddy Smith on WDVX than listen to some canned hash out of NYC.
http://www.wdvx.com/program_guide.htm

** "perceived quality" -- as in "what the greatest number of people prefer." For example, which is better: a fine live performance by someone you never heard of, or a film of a *star*. Reasonable people may disagree, but the public has overwhelmingly voted for the movies.[/list]

[Chuck(G)]

Joe, I think your analysis is pretty accurate.

I was thinking about this as I was sitting with my wife in a concert that was part of the Oregon Bach Festival* in the "cheap" 26 dollar seats listening to a Venezuelan chior sing.

The music wasn't anything I wanted to hear (the program is never announced ahead of time on these things) and the choir, frankly, wasn't terrific. My reaction was that I coiuld have paid $18 for the CD and saved a bunch of money.

The local listener-supported classical FM station to my ears has gotten very stale, particularly with their "no vocal music during the daytime" rule. It's the same old stuff, mostly. OTOH, that performance of the CBSO doing "Rite of Spring" was from that same day, exists on no CD (yet), and was very well done. Last night I listened to the Elgar Romance for bassoon and orchestra; I've never heard it before. No commercials and if I missed a work, I can go back (for a day anyway) and catch it again. I don't expect this nirvana to last, BTW--commercial content will inevitably creep in and someone will start asking for subscription fees. But right now, it certainly satisfies the "quality and cost" criteria.

So, the stumbling block is net access. I believe that that will come about as a matter of market pressures. What telco wouldn't want to get rid of their switching gear and analog equipment for a bunch of routers? VoIP is making serious inroads into the long-distance market and the telcos certainly feel the pressure, so the part about providing broadband to the home I think is inevitable. (I know there are still towns served by Class II Crossbar setups, but that will become uneconomical sometime).

That leaves us with the mobile aspect. The US, unlike most of the rest of the world, has not standardized on a single protocol for cell communications. That's going to have to change. What with cell vendors offering limited web browsing and downloading, it's only a matter of time before wireless net access is a given in most urban areas, I think.

"Why not," I say?

Chuck "Off to listen to Graham Abbott's "Keys to Music" on ABC Classic FM:

http://www.abc.net.au/classic/keys/

[Joe Baker]

An interesting sidebar, Chuck. The article I referred to in Consumer Reports also mentioned one idea for using the TV bandwidth that will be abandoned when TV stations go all-digital: high-speed internet access. I'd need to hear more about how they plan to handle up-stream traffic, but it's an intriguing thought, and would certainly make the internet much more mobile for a great many more people.

The times, they are a-changing...
______________________________
Joe Baker, who wonders what Bloke will do about the demise of analog TV.

[Chuck(G)]

An interesting sidebar, Chuck. The article I referred to in Consumer Reports also mentioned one idea for using the TV bandwidth that will be abandoned when TV stations go all-digital: high-speed internet access. I'd need to hear more about how they plan to handle up-stream traffic, but it's an intriguing thought, and would certainly make the internet much more mobile for a great many more people.:

...and yet another sidebar that I discovered Monday:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio4/news/inbusi ... 0508.shtml

[Mark]

That leaves us with the mobile aspect. The US, unlike most of the rest of the world, has not standardized on a single protocol for cell communications. That's going to have to change. What with cell vendors offering limited web browsing and downloading, it's only a matter of time before wireless net access is a given in most urban areas, I think.

At $0.20 - $0.40 per minute, that's some mighty expensive music listening. (I know, people are willing to pay that to gossip with their friends.)

[ken k]

We have a locally owned AM radio station here in Reading and it is great for all the local news and weather, etc. The morning duo is fun without being obnoxious, so it is grat way to wake up in the morning.

It is mostly talk radio however. When they do play music it is pretty much what the DJ wants to play. They do not have a specific programming format such as top 40, classic rock, country, etc.

Since it is a locally and privately owned it is a bit to the right, Rush, Mike Reagan, at least they dumped Savage Nation; he was scary. They have a late morning call in show, which is mostly old people calling in to complain that their taxes are too high, but other thatn that I like it.

But it is a very good voice for the community. They also sponsor many local promotions and concerts, which is good for the community. So except for not really being a music station it is great, but you can't please everyone's tastes so it is probably the best for them. Granted, I think their target demographoic is probably 50+

ken k

[ThomasDodd]

Granted, I think their target demographoic is probably 50+

I'll bet you way off on that. more like late 20's through 40's.

I'm a 30 something that listens to simialr stations, and have done so for 7 years.

BTW, I find Savage funny. I don't agree with a llot of what he says, but some of it...

[Chuck(G)]

BTW, I find Savage funny. I don't agree with a llot of what he says, but some of it...

I get my news and commentary from BBC 4, so I have to listen through comparatively little either US right- or left-wing chatter. I do get to hear our our leaders at foreign press conferences, which typically don't have the questions soft-pedaled and are almost never broadcast domestically.