Inflation?

[tbn.al]

Isn't the core question depreciation? Cars depreciate. Anything mechanical has to depreciate. The car I bought in 2005 for $22,000 is now worth only $2,200. I did drive it 220,000 miles. Horns do wear out as well. The 70's O-99 I bought off eBay had some wear, ask Joe. I don't know what it cost new but I suspect I paid less than half of the cost new. After it was restored to playing condition I probably had double the cost new in it and it still is still in poor condition cosmetically. I would say that horn depreciated considerably due to wear and tear just like a car, however in new condition it would have probably appreciated to quadruple the cost new. I don't think I could buy a new horn that plays as well for what I have in it.

[Donn]

Value isn't real. You could hypothetically imagine that since value is attached to your tuba somewhat independently by each person who considers the idea, maybe its value is the aggregate of people's values, maybe narrowed to people who actually own it (yourself) or who are at least have a little potential to own it (serious buyers.) But none of those people really has a firm, fixed idea of its value either. It's thoroughly squishy. You can't treat actual sale price as an occasional reality check where we find out what its real value is, because sale price is subject to all kinds of secondary factors, like who actually knew it was for sale, how good a job you did with the photos, three of the four people who might have bought it had just bought another tuba, etc. The bottom line is, there is no real intrinsic value.

[Michael Bush]

Value isn't real. You could hypothetically imagine that since value is attached to your tuba somewhat independently by each person who considers the idea, maybe its value is the aggregate of people's values, maybe narrowed to people who actually own it (yourself) or who are at least have a little potential to own it (serious buyers.) But none of those people really has a firm, fixed idea of its value either. It's thoroughly squishy. You can't treat actual sale price as an occasional reality check where we find out what its real value is, because sale price is subject to all kinds of secondary factors, like who actually knew it was for sale, how good a job you did with the photos, three of the four people who might have bought it had just bought another tuba, etc. The bottom line is, there is no real intrinsic value.

Exactly. The value is what a willing buyer and a willing seller agree it is. The best guide is recent sale prices, the more the better. My guess is that the original question has no general answer that could be applied across the board.

[Matt Walters]

Kiltie,
The quick answer to your question is "Yes", most knowledgeable people factor in inflation when they go to re-sale a musical instrument that they bought used. When is the last time you bought or sold something without checking the prices on line? Also, just sitting there with your spit from 11 years ago and never played until now will actually cause corrosion and will lower the value of the tuba. So hypothetically.......

You can command more money than you originally paid IF:
If there are plenty of buyers looking for that same thing. Some horns are so rare that nobody else wants it. I've used the line "Now that you don't want that, it leaves only 49 other people in the world wanting one and they already have theirs."
If there isn't a better Chinese horn for less money hurting the re-sale value of older horns like yours right now. Price on used 3 valve BBb tubas has dropped almost half compared to 10 years ago because of Chinese tubas.
If the market hasn't changed away from wanting that style of tuba. i.e. rotors versus pistons, etc.
If you can afford to hold out until you get a buyer that has both the money and the want for the horn you are selling. There is no profit until the horn is SOLD for more than what you paid for it.
If it is in the same or better condition. Be aware that some modifications that were popular 10 years ago may actually lower the re-sale value of the horn today.
If, you didn't pay too much for it when you bought it 11 years ago. I can tell you stories like one guy paid list price on a Yamaha YBB-641 BBb tuba from a mom and pop shop and bragged how they threw in the case for free when he asked for a discount. The tuba doesn't come without a case! His tuba was worth far less as a trade-in than what he thought it would be.

I don't use any stock formulas saying that a used horn will sell for a certain percentage less than the current new price. I have to factor in all the above and take my best guess at what it will sell for.

[Dan Schultz]

I set the prices for my horns based on what I think the market will bear. Inflation is part of the equation but supply and demand seems to have more of an impact on what I will sell.

Notice that I seldom buy and sell anything but 'tried and true' instruments. As long the Miraphones, Kings, and other name brands continue to increase in cost new... I should think that would have some influence on the market.

I currently have a Miraphone 183 Eb 5V for sale that's one of the 'older ones' with a 15" bell. This horn can be had for less than 30% of a new one.... and plays like a new one. If Miraphone all of a sudden decides to raise their new price for this horn... surely I can justify pricing it a little higher.

[bisontuba]

Hi-
I am always in a state of shock when I see what new 3v sousaphones sell for these days....
Mark

[tofu]

market determines what it is worth - now. What you paid - not relevant. Shipping charges - relevant to buyer.

If I can walk across the street and buy what you are trying to sell from somebody else for the same price you are asking I'm going to factor (discount) that into the price I'm willing to pay you (in other words I'm going to deduct the the shipping charge from your asking price - plus I'm probably going to tack on a risk factor (discount) since I can easily inspect the horn across the street and see for myself what it is. With you, I'm taking your word (and even pictures lie or cover up certain things and your interpretation of how it plays may not be the same as mine) so I'm going to factor that into the price I'm willing to pay. It's like selling a convertible in the middle of January in Alaska - your market is pretty limited. OTOH the market for your car in southern Florida is probably pretty good - but is the difference in the prices in Florida vs Alaska enough to cover the cost of shipping and the buyers risk discount for buying a car long distance to make it worth it to a buyer in Florida. If there is no market for your car up in Alaska in Jan. and you really want to sell your car then you the seller will have to suck up the shipping cost to Florida in order to match the market price in Florida if you want to sell it in Jan.

[GC]

In 1972, I bought a MW 25 for $910 with a hard case. In 1977, I sold it for $1200 and let it go easy. The same basic horn now (without case) is nearly $8 grand. If I'd kept the old one and kept it in topnotch shape, I could probably get $3500-4000 for it.

Inflation counts, and the estimated value NOW is what determines value, not what you paid for it. The value of an item normally goes down until it becomes an antique, and then the value shoots up, often insanely. The true value is what the market will bear.

[tofu]

In 1972, I bought a MW 25 for $910 with a hard case. In 1977, I sold it for $1200 and let it go easy. The same basic horn now (without case) is nearly $8 grand. If I'd kept the old one and kept it in topnotch shape, I could probably get $3500-4000 for it.

Inflation counts, and the estimated value NOW is what determines value, not what you paid for it. The value of an item normally goes down until it becomes an antique, and then the value shoots up, often insanely. The true value is what the market will bear.

Based on the CPI inflation calculator from the Bureau of Statistics $1200 in 1977 is the equivalent of $4624.67 today. If you had invested your $1200 you received in 1977 @ 6% (which is a little higher than the historical rate of 5% for long term treasuries) and using simple interest for the 36 years since - you would have $3792 today. So neither the horn (based on your estimate of getting $3500-4000 - which I would agree with) nor the long term treasury has kept pace with inflation.

[Jose the tuba player]

...the average selling price of beat-up/restorable American-made sousaphones (and even American sousaphone complete VALVE sections) on eBay (at least according to my arm's length non-scientific observations) has gone WAY up...

...so is there more demand for sousaphones from individuals (??), or has the fact that new American-made sousaphones prices have skyrocketed up to $7000 - $8000 just "generally" affected the selling prices of old/beat-up ones? (A rust-belt-located overhaul mill quotes only $1600 for a complete sousaphone overhaul, so if an old/beat-up American sousaphone can be acquired at around $1000 on eBay, a total restored cost (with a case, and some shipping costs) of under $3500 (or - even with a deluxe ASP valve rebuild - still under $4000) is a pretty good savings over the cost of a (thin-wall) new one, isn't it?

Even new Taiwanese sousaphones are over $6000 and the only (imo) acceptable Communist Chinese ones are now over $2000.

the prices have gone way UP!, however if you look closer it is always the same few bidders on every sousaphone, my repair guy pointed one of his resalers out to me and said " he f@#ked up the market, not only does he not play , he doesnt care how much he bids up as long as he wins" and even his other resalers complain about him. there is a demand in places like here in los angeles where the banda scene is growing, many resalers go to mexico and sell tubas there as they can fetch way more than here in the us. the demand here has gotten so bad many schools had their tubas and sousaphones stolen in the past 2-3 years and its still a problem

[Donn]

The moral of the story seems to be that Mexican buyers are willing to pay more, because it isn't as easy to steal a school horn there? I probably missed something there.

[Jose the tuba player]

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[ghmerrill]

Inflation is a derivative (and abstract economic) concept. Inflation is determined by the change in prices over time -- rather than prices being determined by inflation. This is really pretty much what everyone else has been saying as well. You can try to use the measure of inflation/deflation to estimate what a reasonable price for something "should" be, but this is doing things backwards, and the results will not be particularly sensible or reliable.