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Chuck(G)
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Post by Chuck(G) »

Back in July, Naugin said that the city lacked sufficient resources to evacuate everyone, essentially saying that the poor would have to fend for themselves. If you need a citation, I can find one for you.

Then our Chief Executive says this (from BBC World Service):
"I don't think anybody anticipated the breach of the levees. They did appreciate a serious storm but these levees got breached and as a result much of New Orleans is flooded and now we're having to deal with it and will," he said.
Now, that's pure horsepucky. Here's what the AP had to say in 2002:

http://www.waterconserve.info/articles/ ... nkid=14106

I can cite other documents, including an insurance industry report from 2000 that basically says the same thing.

Isn't it strange that, in the South, with all of its military bases, insufficient resources couldn't be mobilized for an evacuation? And that, after making excuses beforehand, FEMA has suddently turned up about 380 buses for transporting the poor wretches caught in the Superdome?

Well, cholera hasn't broken out--yet, but it's probably just a matter of time. The arson fires haven't gotten really going--yet.

The hurricane season's only half over. Now, if this was an Arabian Horse national disaster, I'd feel better...
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ThomasDodd
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Post by ThomasDodd »

Chuck(G) wrote: that's pure horsepucky. Here's what the AP had to say in 2002:
I can cite other documents, including an insurance industry report from 2000 that basically says the same thing.
It's similar to past problem. No one listens, and few really belive the worst can happen untill it does.

Like the attacks in NYC and DC in 2001, when no one believed such an attack was likely or possible. Any real attempt at prevention was lambasted and those in dupport ridiculed.

Look at the Miss. River levees. The are the result of massive flood in the 30's. They've know the levees in NO wouldn't stand up to a Cat4+ but wouldn't/couldn't do much.

Now something mignt change, but I'd never live there, or within 200 miles of the gulf/atlantic coast. I'm not going near volcanos or fault lines either.
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Post by Joe Baker »

ThomasDodd wrote:It's similar to past problem. No one listens, and few really belive the worst can happen untill it does.
... partly because there are SO MANY prophets of doom, all predicting catastrophe if their pet project isn't funded. 99% of them ARE "horse-pucky". Clearly, this one was not; but my outrage at lack of preparation is somewhat moderated by the recognition that it's difficult to know just which doom-sayers are really telling the truth and which are trumping up data to support their slab o' pork.

HOWEVER, there's just NO excuse for the fact that food and (especially) water hasn't been airlifted in to these people stuck on the interstate overpasses. I may be missing something, but I don't understand why it would take three+ days to get this moving.

To Henry: for my part, I'm NOT sanctioning 'sideliners' getting into the action. I'm talking about duly authorized, trained, experienced law-enforcement personnel and MAYBE National Guard, not just any good ol' boy with a gun. So we may not be so very far apart, after all.
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Post by ThomasDodd »

wnazzaro wrote:
Joe Baker wrote:Joe Baker, who is prepared to roll heads of either (or neither) political party if appropriate.
Putting someone in charge of FEMA with no experience in disaster management does seem to be a bad decision, though, don't you think?
Are you speaking of the national or regional directors?

At the top, Brown is not new, having been with FEMA for a few year, including last year and it's hurricanes. http://www.fema.gov/about/bios/brown.shtm

Still, these guys are like CEOs. Just management. Most CEOs have no experience in the field. How many automotive CEOs ever worked in R&D or on the assembly line? Same with most other large companies (blue chips in the stock market).
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Post by Rick Denney »

Chuck(G) wrote:...Then our Chief Executive says this (from BBC World Service):
"I don't think anybody anticipated the breach of the levees. They did appreciate a serious storm but these levees got breached and as a result much of New Orleans is flooded and now we're having to deal with it and will," he said.
...

Isn't it strange that, in the South, with all of its military bases, insufficient resources couldn't be mobilized for an evacuation? And that, after making excuses beforehand, FEMA has suddently turned up about 380 buses for transporting the poor wretches caught in the Superdome?
I heard that interview with Diane Sawyer that the BBC quoted, and it also caught my attention. I think he meant that nobody expected the levees to break once the storm had passed with no apparent severe damage. In other words, they were not mobilizing the major relief effort on Monday when the storm had passed and everything seemed okay. On Sunday, they were consumed by trying to get the evacuation executed. It was not until late Monday or Tuesday morning that the levees were breached and the city was going to flood.

As far as the 380 buses are concerned, you still haven't answered my questions. They didn't "suddenly" produce them. They started working on those buses Monday night (when the levees broke), and the first batch of them didn't arrive until Wednesday mid-day. And that was on a weekday. Do you think ANYBODY could have done that between Saturday when the storm strengthened suddenly and Sunday when the evacuation had to occur? And those 380 buses can carry about 15,000 people at capacity, which means with none of them carrying more than a bag of luggage. There is no way in the world you'd have gotten even that many onto those buses. Those people who went to the Superdome on Sunday fully expected to return to their homes on Monday. Whether or not that expectation was realistic, that was the call they made, and they had access to the same information you and I did.

By the way, it would take 2500 buses to move the entire 100,000 who stayed behind. And the buses would have just added to the total congestion on the departing highways. I doubt there is an agency at any level of government that has the defensible legal authority to comandeer that many buses from that many sources before the disaster. And if one of those buses crashed and killed a few folks, and the evacuation proved unnecessary (as it did for a storm last year), the legal fallout would be profound.

The disaster-movie notion of a 25-foot storm surge overtopping the Pontchartrain levee would not have resulted in a two-day filling of the lower parts of the city. It would have resulted in an immediate and catastrophic flood. That was the warning issued to the public on Sunday, yet still 80,000 of those 100,000 stayed in their homes. Some didn't get the message, some could not respond, and others refused to respond. How do you solve that problem even if you have the buses?

Nobody who lives in a hurricane zone should minimize the risk of floodiing. But even so, it's still a relatively rare event. There have only been three landfalls of category five hurricanes in the U.S. since records were being kept, including Camille, Andrew, and the Labor Day Storm of 1935. The highly destructive category 4 storms are pretty rare, too, and many of them land in lightly populated areas and don't do as much damage. Carla was a category 4 storm that landed in Texas in 1961, but did less damage than Allison, a mere tropical storm that flooded my parents' home, and Alicia, a marginal category 3 storm, both of which hit Houston squarely. What would you do, clear the entire coast?

But there is really no safe place from natural disaster, and it's nearly impossible to anticipate them all and spend what it would take to eliminate the risk of tragic loss of life. If we see an 8.something earthquake on the New Madrid fault (which is quite likely--it's happened before), the bridges over the Mississippi from Memphis to St. Louis will probably all be at risk, and there will be potentially severe destruction. Here in northern Virginia, we are as vulnerable to destruction by tornado from a cyclonic storm as anyone (as we found last year when Ivan dropped a tornado that clear some of the woods 1000 feet west of our house). Heck, over a third of Camille's fatalities were in Virginia, the result of torrential rains and landslides.

When people suffer tragedy they don't deserve, it's easy to throw blame around. But any politician who tried to spend what it would take to anticipate Lake Pontchartrain spilling into the city would have to divert money away from other programs, and the supporters of those programs would have drummed them out of office. Forcing people to move away from risky areas would require making judgements that seem to me impossible to make. People discount risk all the time, and occasionally that decision proves folly, but only in hindsight.

Now, keeping the levees properly maintained, which I'm sure was not done, is another matter.

Rick "thinking that disaster planning is a risk management exercise, not risk elimination, which is impossible" Denney
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Post by ThomasDodd »

Rick Denney wrote:And if one of those buses crashed and killed a few folks, and the evacuation proved unnecessary (as it did for a storm last year), the legal fallout would be profound.
Come on Rick, can we eat our cake after we get it?
Nobody who lives in a hurricane zone should minimize the risk of floodiing. But even so, it's still a relatively rare event. ... What would you do, clear the entire coast?
My in-laws went by that rule. 1/4 of the distance east to west on the souther MS border with LA. We call them Sunday to come north. The response was no. It would turn. Wednesday morning we heard from them. In tears, "It was horriible!" Hard not to laugh, given the warning and thier attitude Sunday.

Some people just won't go. You'd have to drag them kicking and screaming to safety.
To do this in all the small towns would take weeks. There are still people that live 30+ minutes from their nearest neighbor.
Rick "thinking that disaster planning is a risk management exercise, not risk elimination, which is impossible" Denney
Where's your humanity Rick. You know you cannot talk about risk management and living people at the same time. At least not around certain groups.
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Chuck(G)
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Post by Chuck(G) »

Now, keeping the levees properly maintained, which I'm sure was not done, is another matter.
Same bunch of rascals, as far as I can see:

http://www.editorandpublisher.com/eandp ... 1001051313

Out where I live, forest wildfires are the big natural disaster. Up until about 5 years ago, the Forest Service would sponsor readiness drills, where all of the surrounding fire districts, and the USFS would simulate a wildfire (smoking barrels) and respond to it. Helicopters and plaines, more fire equipment than you could imagine. My neighborhood was a favorite place for these things, as it represents a forested area with some residences and farms--a very tricky situtaion.

But it all stopped suddenly. When I asked a USFS friend what happened, he replied that funding had been cut and the Service was told to rely on computer simulations.

Now, I'm not an expert in the field, but it would seem to this poor benighted soul that the better part of Homeland Security would be disaster preparedness.

Apparently not. Gimme them tax cuts!
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Post by ThomasDodd »

Chuck(G) wrote:Apparently not. Gimme them tax cuts!
The tax cut aren't the problem though.
1) revenue has go up with the lower tax rates.
2) spending has increased faster.

#2 is the problem. Especially where the money goes. Paying bueracrats and funding pork. Multiple offices with overlapping projects. Incerased funding of failed programs instead of shutting them down and trying something different.

The government could bring in $200 billion above current spending (ie, surplus) and it would all be spent twice.

I'll leave it to the reader to decide which projects are the problem. Would want to get political.
Just remember politics and politicians are the problem.
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Post by Joe Baker »

Chuck(G) wrote:Out where I live, forest wildfires are the big natural disaster. Up until about 5 years ago, the Forest Service would sponsor readiness drills,... But it all stopped suddenly. When I asked a USFS friend what happened, he replied that funding had been cut and the Service was told to rely on computer simulations.

Now, I'm not an expert in the field, but it would seem to this poor benighted soul that the better part of Homeland Security would be disaster preparedness.

Apparently not. Gimme them tax cuts!
Not the problem here. They spent $250,000 last year simulating (not computer-simulating) this EXACT scenario, and still muffed it.
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wait for the Big Cali Earthquake

Post by Paul S »

ThomasDodd wrote: .......Now something might change, but I'd never live there, or within 200 miles of the gulf/atlantic coast. I'm not going near volcanos or fault lines either.
As magnificently terrible as this whole situation is, there was actually a quite sizeable evacuation and correct expectations of what problems would be faced beforehand yet response has been horrid.

If I were located in a major population center in California I would now fully realize that there will be no hope at all if/when the expected major quake occurs without prior warning.

This is a thought that really scares me and I am in the midwest...
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Post by Chuck(G) »

For those of you in the area, here's another way to help out:

http://www.hurricanehousing.org/
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Post by Daryl Fletcher »

Last edited by Daryl Fletcher on Wed Oct 05, 2005 11:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: wait for the Big Cali Earthquake

Post by Chuck(G) »

Paul S wrote:If I were located in a major population center in California I would now fully realize that there will be no hope at all if/when the expected major quake occurs without prior warning.
I wasn't that far from the epicenter when the Loma Prieta quake hit in '89. California earthquakes can do a lot of damage, but the aftermath isn't nearly as bad as what Katrina's leaving behind.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loma_Prieta_earthquake
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Post by MartyNeilan »

Why doesn't Bush & Co. just put Rudy Guiliani in charge? They need a no-nonsense guy who has courage, won't back down, and can make decisions in a split second. After 9/11 he was like the Godfather - hundreds lined up to ask him questions about anything and everythig going on in the city, and he took care of business while our President was hiding under his bed on Airforce One. Rudy WAS America's leader that day and the next. Politicians in Lake Nawlins keep complaining there are "too many frickin cooks" without taking charge themselves and getting the job done. Oh, well at least their governor cried on TV, that makes it all better.
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Post by Chuck(G) »

bloke wrote:Chuck and Henry,

1/ I love you guys.

2/ I'm glad you live far away.
The feeling's mutual, Joe.
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Post by ThomasDodd »

cyras21 wrote:
Chuck(G) wrote:I'm more than a little disappointed in the lack of national leadership in all of this.
What national leadership?!? If this were another country we'd be there in full force. They need buses to get people out but they are UNABLE to obtain a bus from neighboring states? You all know that we would have a C5 packed with buses if someone else needed them. I think the looters are an embarrassment to the city, but our govt is embarrassingus all.
I do hope you're never in a position to run such an effort.

Lets see. The airport was closed, so you couldn't land the planes. The roads are flooded, so you cannot drive them anywhere. Oh and there's not much usable fuel for the busses either.
Yeah, good idea. Load up a few C5s with busses and fly to N.O.

Maybe some of you need to go look at previous relief efforts. The day of, or the next, we pledged lot's of help. But it took days to get stuff moving, and even long to distrubite supplies once there arrived.
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Post by ThomasDodd »

MartyNeilan wrote:Why doesn't Bush & Co. just put Rudy Guiliani in charge? ... while our President was hiding under his bed on Airforce One.
I see Michael Moore is sill around. I hope Marty if OK. Cooks can be dangerous.
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Post by Daryl Fletcher »

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Post by ThomasDodd »

cyras21 wrote:I never said to ship buses to NO via C5s, simply that if someone else needed them the US would do so. I understand the logistics of things but there is MORE the govt can be doing right now.
Such as?
Then again, should the federal government be expected to do anything, let alone everything? The only constitutional action I can see the Feds doing involves the oil/gas pipelines needed for national security. What in the constitution gives the Feds the power to take my taxes or yours to provide food, water, transportation, or housing to anyone?

Most of the relief will, and should, come form NGOs like the Red Cross. The shelters and aid for charitable work buy private citizens and companies (Wal-Mart, Target, Budwieser...) States, may or may not have constituutional authority (depens on the state) to do much in their own state, or any other.
One things that isn't being reported on is that Bush cut the levee funding by 80% in 2003 while New Orleans was REPAIRING and UPGRADING the system.
No, Congress did that. Bush could propose it, and possibly veto it, but Congress controls the spending. Perhaps Lousiana/N.O. should maintain their levees?
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Post by Rick Denney »

cyras21 wrote:I never said to ship buses to NO via C5s, simply that if someone else needed them the US would do so. I understand the logistics of things but there is MORE the govt can be doing right now. They just got caught with their pants down. One things that isn't being reported on is that Bush cut the levee funding by 80% in 2003 while New Orleans was REPAIRING and UPGRADING the system.
When I started out in public service (in transportation), cities bought their own stuff. If they needed a traffic signal system (my specialty), they sold bonds to borrow the money from their people, and bought one. They kept it for as long as it took to pay off the bonds, and then they bought a new one.

At that time, transportation received federal funding (which by law can only go to states, not to cities) in one of several ways: Interstate, Primary, Secondary, or Urban Systems highway programs. Some community-development block grants got used for small transportation projects. Those three larger systems were primarily used for routes with regional significance. Local streets were funded by selling bonds. Drainage projects were funded solely by local bond sales, with only the occasional help from the Corps of Engineers, who have been primarily concerned with flood control lakes.

In the early 90's, federal programs changed, providing a new program for cities with what the EPA described as bad air, called the Congestion Mitigation and Air Quality Program. CMAQ became the funding source of choice for operational improvements like traffic signal systems. Cities then immediately started selling bonds for other things and let the feds pay for most of their infrastructure improvements. But the cities still had to maintain what they bought with federal money.

Now, even that has changed. Most large cities complain that they can't fund their maintenance without large doses of federal money, and there is now an Operations and Maintenance program in federal transportation funding. The money is spent poorly, because nobody is held accountable in practical ways. The result is the recently announce National Traffic Signal Report Card (the first publicly announced accountability mechanism in years), which gave the country a D. Back when these were funded locally, if there was a problem, the local guy in charge got to explain it to the public, often on TV news. I know; I was that local guy for many years.

I submit that after New Orleans flooded in the early part of the 20th century, the city leaders sold bonds to build the levee system. They sold bonds to upgrade them, and they taxed the people protected by them to maintain them and pay off the bonds. I suspect that was true at least until the last two decades. The Corps of Engineers may have been involved, but if they were, the majority of the funds still came from local sources, I expect.

The dependance of local governments on federal money to maintain, let alone build their infrastructure has exploded in recent years. I think many would like to see the federal government back out of those activities, for three reasons: 1.) the accountability to spend the money wisely is higher when it's local money being spent, 2.) federal agencies are filled with bureaucrats who do not know and do not understand the local situation, and 3.) there is more money available because it doesn't stop off in some distant capital for a heavy night out on the town.

The problem is that the local governments have happily given over those responsibilities to higher levels of government so that they can pursue other things, such as local welfare programs, rent support, fancy new buildings, using their tax capacity to fund boondoggles like sports stadiums, pandering to uniformed services (the one thing they can't delegate up the line, though they immediately do even that when there is a disaster), and so on. When I was at the City of San Antonio, I ran the traffic signals out of a former flood-gate control building about the size of a mobile home. It worked. That piece of land is now a park where you can get knifed real easily if you are there at the wrong time, and the control center is shared in a state-built Taj Mahal in the suburbs. Blaming the feds for screwups is the standard local-government schtick, but I think the most disappointing of all officials associated with this disaster is the mayor of New Orleans.

If the levees needed maintenance five years ago, and everyone knew it, then why didn't the City of New Orleans sell some bonds and fix them, like they would have 50 years ago? They could have put off some park projects, or some cultural projects, and so on, if they really thought it was important. Fact is, they didn't think it was that important, except as a tool for political posturing. They (meaning the people and their elected representatives) didn't really believe the doomsday scenarios.

There are many cities as vulnerable to such disasters as New Orleans, though perhaps the disasters that would create the problem are different, because they no longer care about their local infrastructure and have let it decay.

Rick "who sees no advantage to the federalization of local infrastructure maintenance, but who doesn't blame the individuals saddled with the distant responsibility" Denney
Last edited by Rick Denney on Fri Sep 02, 2005 11:58 am, edited 1 time in total.
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